Hi, folks,
2003 is so far, so good for this degenerate.
I did very well on the Golden Globes in January, and have been picking up a bit of a run in basketball, although I'm usually not one to follow "Ball" sports and am still undergoing a learning curve. (Last night's lesson: don't assume a team with a 20-point lead will come out strong in the second half.)
Thankfully, today marks the return of the sport I have a great time 'capping, and one that is continually profitable for me. Without the corrupt influence of big money, mixed martial arts is still infinitely easier to 'cap than big boxing. Thought I'd share some thoughts with you now that I've placed my wagers.
As always, a disclaimer: we're all big boys and have to take reponsibility for our own actions. If a fight could be decided on paper, there would be no need to pay the fighters. If fights weren't unpredictable to some extent, no one would watch. So tread carefully.
Here's my grocery list for Friday's UFC 41: Onslaught card. The shows hits live PPV at 10 PM Eastern time. Unlike the shark/fish matches of November's UFC 40 card (which resulted in fairly predictable bouts, so much so that I bet finishing props instead of money lines), this line-up is pretty tight, with quite a few pick 'ems. Tighter matchmaking is good for the fans, but not so good for us. Nonetheless...
Matt Lindland (-130) def. Phil Baroni
This is certainly the grudge (re)match of the evening. Lindland is a Silver medallist in Greco-Roman wrestling from 2000, and only has one loss in MMA, to reigning champion Murilo Bustamante. Baroni also holds one loss: a decision against him vs. Lindland over a year ago. Since then, Baroni has TKOed Amar Suloev and Dave Menne, setting up his rep as a power puncher. Lindland went on to defeat Pat Miletich and Ivan Salaverry. Both these two normally look very dominant against their opposition, and Baroni's mouth has netted him more attention in recent months.
Yes, Baroni can punch. Yes, he's tough as nails. Yes, he's a charismatic figure. But Lindland is an athete with world-class credentials. He trains with the best in the world: Randy Couture, Dan Henderson, Evan Tanner. He recently hooked up with Chuck Liddell's striking coach for stand-up sharpening. He's even been able to out-trash talk the "New York Bad Ass" at every turn.
Baroni, meanwhile, has had friction with training camps in the past. He knows he was bullied by Lindland in their first bout. His one dimension is strong, but as we've seen time and again, it's difficult to rat-a-tat a flurry when someone knows it's coming, and when that someone is as adept all-around as Lindland. Look for this fight to be a carbon copy of Belfort/Couture from 1997: the puncher comes in overconfident and is smothered by the craftier athlete.
Tank Abbott (+140) def. Frank Mir
Pundits and fans are really polarized over this one. Abbott is probably the most recognizable figure on the card, and could be largely responsible for the sellout crowd expected at the Atlantic City Boardwalk Hall. His box office drawing power comes not from his record - a paltry 8-7 - but from his Tyson-esque attitude towards fighting. If you're going to go down, go down in flames. As such, Abbott has delivered some spectacular KOs against B-list opponents, but usually chokes when it comes to delivering the goods against the sport's elite. After four years away from the game and at age 37, Abbott has wound up the 'dog at most sportsbooks taking odds on the event.
His opponent is submission wiz Frank Mir, younger by over a decade, a bit bigger, and just nine months ago considered one of the best heavyweights out there. He got attention by quickly submitting two solid opponents in Roberto Traven and Pete Williams. While Traven was a solid victory, Williams was on the tail-end of a downswing in his career, and didn't really seem to give a shit. Mir's overconfidence cost him dearly against Ian Freeman last July. Despite being the heavy favorite, Mir looked liked a flopping fish as he went for submissions while brawler Freeman tenderized his face. After attempting to compose himself and instead collapsing, Mir was TKOed. Instead of challenging for a title, he began talking retirement and hasn't fought since.
So what do we have? We have a returning UFC veteran who, despite talking up his barroom brawler rep, has been training seriously for this fight, catching up to new techniques and working his cardio (always a problem) hard. At 37, he's up there for a combat athlete, but power is the last thing to go. He's the lightest he's ever been for a UFC fight. Those who have bested him in the ring have mostly been strikers at the top of their game (Mo Smith, Belfort, Pedro Rizzo). Mir is no striker by any stretch of the imagination. In fifteen fights, Tank has been submitted twice, both times at the end of a eight-man tournament. The first time, he gassed out completely after twelve minutes of fighting (and having had two fights prior that same evening). The second time, he slipped and got caught in a choke. As a whole, Tank is a very difficult guy to submit. It's never been done outside the tourney format.
Mir is psychologically damaged by a loss to a power puncher. Here he's facing a guy who hits literally twice as hard as Freeman, who is just as big as he is, who is difficult to take down, and who is looking to annoy his naysayers by putting on a credible performance. Can you really teach someone to cope with that kind of power? Yes, Tank will be rusty. But I fully expect him to decimate Mir in a match-up of styles custom made for his brand of punishment. Abbott may fare quite poorly later on. Here he's being given a win on a silver platter.
BJ Penn/Caol Uno Goes the Distance: +180
The other rematch of the evening. Penn and Uno are two ultra-crafty lightweights. Penn began his career as a finisher, but after a decision loss to Jens Pulver, started getting increasingly hesitant to engage his opponents. Uno has always played a cautious game. Their first fight ended in a flash KO for Penn. This time around, and with the belt on the line, I see both guys doing more clinching than finishing.
Since there are quite a few heavy favorites mixed in with the pick 'ems tonight, I parlayed six of the eight bouts. Took Rodriguez/Penn/Lindland/Abbott/Matyushenko/McGee. Worth a play.
Good luck to all tonight. Should be an exciting card. If I don't shame myself with these picks, I'll be posting tomorrow with thoughts on Jones/Ruiz.
2003 is so far, so good for this degenerate.
Thankfully, today marks the return of the sport I have a great time 'capping, and one that is continually profitable for me. Without the corrupt influence of big money, mixed martial arts is still infinitely easier to 'cap than big boxing. Thought I'd share some thoughts with you now that I've placed my wagers.
As always, a disclaimer: we're all big boys and have to take reponsibility for our own actions. If a fight could be decided on paper, there would be no need to pay the fighters. If fights weren't unpredictable to some extent, no one would watch. So tread carefully.
Here's my grocery list for Friday's UFC 41: Onslaught card. The shows hits live PPV at 10 PM Eastern time. Unlike the shark/fish matches of November's UFC 40 card (which resulted in fairly predictable bouts, so much so that I bet finishing props instead of money lines), this line-up is pretty tight, with quite a few pick 'ems. Tighter matchmaking is good for the fans, but not so good for us. Nonetheless...
Matt Lindland (-130) def. Phil Baroni
This is certainly the grudge (re)match of the evening. Lindland is a Silver medallist in Greco-Roman wrestling from 2000, and only has one loss in MMA, to reigning champion Murilo Bustamante. Baroni also holds one loss: a decision against him vs. Lindland over a year ago. Since then, Baroni has TKOed Amar Suloev and Dave Menne, setting up his rep as a power puncher. Lindland went on to defeat Pat Miletich and Ivan Salaverry. Both these two normally look very dominant against their opposition, and Baroni's mouth has netted him more attention in recent months.
Yes, Baroni can punch. Yes, he's tough as nails. Yes, he's a charismatic figure. But Lindland is an athete with world-class credentials. He trains with the best in the world: Randy Couture, Dan Henderson, Evan Tanner. He recently hooked up with Chuck Liddell's striking coach for stand-up sharpening. He's even been able to out-trash talk the "New York Bad Ass" at every turn.
Baroni, meanwhile, has had friction with training camps in the past. He knows he was bullied by Lindland in their first bout. His one dimension is strong, but as we've seen time and again, it's difficult to rat-a-tat a flurry when someone knows it's coming, and when that someone is as adept all-around as Lindland. Look for this fight to be a carbon copy of Belfort/Couture from 1997: the puncher comes in overconfident and is smothered by the craftier athlete.
Tank Abbott (+140) def. Frank Mir
Pundits and fans are really polarized over this one. Abbott is probably the most recognizable figure on the card, and could be largely responsible for the sellout crowd expected at the Atlantic City Boardwalk Hall. His box office drawing power comes not from his record - a paltry 8-7 - but from his Tyson-esque attitude towards fighting. If you're going to go down, go down in flames. As such, Abbott has delivered some spectacular KOs against B-list opponents, but usually chokes when it comes to delivering the goods against the sport's elite. After four years away from the game and at age 37, Abbott has wound up the 'dog at most sportsbooks taking odds on the event.
His opponent is submission wiz Frank Mir, younger by over a decade, a bit bigger, and just nine months ago considered one of the best heavyweights out there. He got attention by quickly submitting two solid opponents in Roberto Traven and Pete Williams. While Traven was a solid victory, Williams was on the tail-end of a downswing in his career, and didn't really seem to give a shit. Mir's overconfidence cost him dearly against Ian Freeman last July. Despite being the heavy favorite, Mir looked liked a flopping fish as he went for submissions while brawler Freeman tenderized his face. After attempting to compose himself and instead collapsing, Mir was TKOed. Instead of challenging for a title, he began talking retirement and hasn't fought since.
So what do we have? We have a returning UFC veteran who, despite talking up his barroom brawler rep, has been training seriously for this fight, catching up to new techniques and working his cardio (always a problem) hard. At 37, he's up there for a combat athlete, but power is the last thing to go. He's the lightest he's ever been for a UFC fight. Those who have bested him in the ring have mostly been strikers at the top of their game (Mo Smith, Belfort, Pedro Rizzo). Mir is no striker by any stretch of the imagination. In fifteen fights, Tank has been submitted twice, both times at the end of a eight-man tournament. The first time, he gassed out completely after twelve minutes of fighting (and having had two fights prior that same evening). The second time, he slipped and got caught in a choke. As a whole, Tank is a very difficult guy to submit. It's never been done outside the tourney format.
Mir is psychologically damaged by a loss to a power puncher. Here he's facing a guy who hits literally twice as hard as Freeman, who is just as big as he is, who is difficult to take down, and who is looking to annoy his naysayers by putting on a credible performance. Can you really teach someone to cope with that kind of power? Yes, Tank will be rusty. But I fully expect him to decimate Mir in a match-up of styles custom made for his brand of punishment. Abbott may fare quite poorly later on. Here he's being given a win on a silver platter.
BJ Penn/Caol Uno Goes the Distance: +180
The other rematch of the evening. Penn and Uno are two ultra-crafty lightweights. Penn began his career as a finisher, but after a decision loss to Jens Pulver, started getting increasingly hesitant to engage his opponents. Uno has always played a cautious game. Their first fight ended in a flash KO for Penn. This time around, and with the belt on the line, I see both guys doing more clinching than finishing.
Since there are quite a few heavy favorites mixed in with the pick 'ems tonight, I parlayed six of the eight bouts. Took Rodriguez/Penn/Lindland/Abbott/Matyushenko/McGee. Worth a play.
Good luck to all tonight. Should be an exciting card. If I don't shame myself with these picks, I'll be posting tomorrow with thoughts on Jones/Ruiz.
